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Sunday, June 19, 2011

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  • deepimpact
    09-10 08:50 PM
    It is a given that Demand is not stagnant . If it were , backlog would have been reduced by 140K this year alone.


    Each year the new quota is 140K , as long as the new demand each year ~100K - the remaining 40K goes towards backlog elimination . We will know in the next inventory report what is "net" reduction for 2010. One can do rough math of latest inventory report and the current priority dates to arrive at ~approximate figure of 35-40K.

    I think EB3 should get cleared in next 5 years - I think flood of new EB2 applications are overblown.

    I think "peak demand" was between 2003 and 2007 . Good news is USCIS is no more wasting numbers .

    Given that change to laws is almost impossible. We should sit tight and wait for 3-5 years.

    The problem with your analysis is not every one in the backlog has equal access to excess of 35-40K visas available each year. Most of the excess comes from EB4,5,1 and 2ROW and all goes to EB2 I/C. EB3 ROW gets ~30K every year (42K- 4*2.8K).
    Even if we are to assume that post 2007 the demand for EB2 I/C and EB3 is low then also it is ~ 15K for EB2 I/C and ~ 10K for EB3 ROW. But the way INA law is framed EB3 I (most backlogged with ~ 60K) will only get 2800 visa till either of EB2 I/C or EB3 row becomes current. And by current I mean real current, not July 2007. Using these numbers it will still take 4-5 for both EB2 I/C and EB3 Row to become current.
    This is assuming low demand in all EB categories continue.
    It will be only after 2014-15 that EB3I will get ~ 50K SOFAD(35K SOFAD which EB2 I/C was getting plus about 15K from EB3 ROW category). So in 2015 EB3 I will see a jump of ~ 4 yrs (2003-2007). So EB3I folks with PD after 2007 will have a relative wait time of ~ 8 yrs but folks from 2003-4 are looking at a 12-13 year wait unless reform like Recapture/STEM Degree holders & Dependents excluded from cap is passed.





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  • Ramba
    07-04 07:25 PM
    Everyone blaming CIS/DOS needs to understand some basics behind this mess. Before going to conclude anything, first, one should read all the ombudsman reports for last 3 or 4 years. Former INS or current USCIS�s functions and operations were not questionable and not known to public till ombudsman office was established. Ombudsman has helped customers and keep helping to improve efficiency of CIS. Ombudsman main concern (or goal) have been over the 4 years are

    1. Primarily reducing backlogs in any application type particularly 485 and timely approval of any application.

    2. Abolish the need for interim benefits like EAD, AP etc. If they approve 485 in 6 months, then most of us do not require EAD and AP.

    3. Reduce the wastage of EB visas, as unused EB visas can not be carried over to next year (use it or lose it). Since 1992, about 200,000 EB visas were lost permanently. In 2003 alone, they issued only 64,000 EB visas and lost 88,000.

    The recent report to congress, the ombudsman scolded the CIS left and right for its inefficiency and highlighted how many EB visas were lost for ever, in last 10 years despite the very heavy demand for employment based green cards. Based on his report, both CIS and DOS try to obey the direction of ombudsman and modifying the 485 adjudication procedure. The reason for loss of EB visas in previous years not only due to inefficiency in processing the 485s on time, it is also due to lengthy background check delay by FBI, where USCIS has no control. For example, in 2003 they could approve about 64,000 485s only. It is partially due to USCIS inefficiency and partially due to lengthy FBI check. There are 300,000 (AOS+ Naturalization applicants) cases are pending with FBI for name check. Out of which, about 70,000 cases are pending more than 2 years. Out of 300,000 victims of name check delay, how many are really threat to the country? Perhaps none or may be few! Remember that lot of Indians also victims of name check and all the victims of name check delay already living in USA.

    The big problem is the timing when USCIS takes the visa number for a 485 applicant. Till 1982, INS took visa number for a 485 applicant as soon as they receive the application. Visa number assigned to a 485 applicant without processing his/her application. He/She may not be a qualified applicant to approve 485. Still they assign to them. If they found, the applicant is ineligible, they suppose to return the number back to DOS. However, this practice was modified after 1982. USCIS is taking visa number only at the time of approval of 485, after processing the 485 for a lengthy period. For some people, particularly victims of name check, 485 processing time vary between 2 to 5 years. Though, it is a good practice it is not the ideal or efficient process, due to name check delay. Let us assume about 150,000 are victim of name check in 2003. If they assigned all the numbers to these 150,000 applicants at the time they filed 485, the 88,000 visa numbers might have not been lost in 2003. Now what happens, those who filed 485 in 2003 (victim of name check delay) will take EB numbers from 2007 or 2008 quota, if FBI clears his/her file in 2007 or 2008. This will push back those who are going to file 485 in 2007 or 2008.

    That why, ombudsman in his 2007 yearly report to Congress recommended to practice the old way of assigning visa number to 485 applicants, to minimize the loss of visa numbers.

    Now lets come to July Visa bulletin mess.

    Because of tight holding of visa cutoff dates for EB3 and EB2 for the first 8 months of 2007 (From Oct 2006 to May 2007) USCIS approved only 66,000 485s. For the next 4 months they have about 60K to 70K numbers available. If they approve the pending 485s with slower speed or old cut off dates, there is a potential estimated loss of 40,000 EB visas by Sep 2007. Thats why, based on ombudsman recommendation, DOS moved considerably the cut off date for June. When they took inventory in May, there are about 40,000 documentarily qualified 485 applications were pending due to non-availability of visa numbers. The �documentarily qualified 485 applications� mean the application filed long time back and processed by USCIS and cleared the FBI name and criminal check, and found eligible for green card. Apart from 40,000 documentarily qualified 485 applications, there is thousands of 485 applications (documentarily not yet qualified) pending due to name check. When DOS checked with USCIS they found only 40,000 documentarily qualified 485 applications (in all EB categories put together) are pending. However, the available visas are more than 40,000 (60to 70K). Then they made with out consulting properly with USCIS they made �current� for all EB categories. This is how they determine �current� or �over-subscribed� and how they establish cutoff dates.

     If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered �Current.�

     Whenever the total of documentarily qualified applicants in a category exceeds the supply of numbers available for allotment for the particular month, the category is considered to be �oversubscribed� and a visa availability cut-off date is established.

    There is nothing wrong with DOS to make all categories �current� for a July bulletin as per they definition of demand vs supply estimation to meet the numerical limitations per year. Perhaps the DOS did not aware of other impact of making all categories �current� ie fresh guys entering into I-485 race. Because of �current� there will be additional tons and tons of new filings. The rough estimation is about 500K to 700K new 485s and same amount of EAD and AP applications will be filed in July. But the available number is just 60K, and there are already 40K documentarily qualified 485s are pending more than 6 months to 3 years to take the numbers from remaining 60K pool. That leaves just 20K to fresh 485 filings. If 700K new 485 filed in July, it will choke the system. People have to live only in EAD and AP for next 5 to 10 years.

    For example, an EB3-Indian whose LC approved through fast PERM on July 30th 2007, can apply 140 and 485 on July 31st 2007 as per July visa bulletin. For his PD, it will take another 10 years for the approval of 485. During this 10 year period, he/she has to live in EAD and AP and need to go for finger print every 15 month.

    Therefore by making �current� for all EB categories is a billion dollar mistake by both DOS and CIS first part.. Another mistake is timing of rectifying mistake. USCIS and DOS and law firms should have discussed immediately about the potential chaos about making current and rectified move the cut-off to reasonable period to accommodate additional 20K 485s. If they modified the VB, with in couple of days after July 13, then there wont be a this much stress, time and wastage of money.

    There is nothing wrong in issuing additional advisory notice or modified visa bulletin to control the usage of visa numbers. The only mistake both USCIS and DOS is made is the timing of issuance of modified visa bulletin or advisory notice. It indicates poor transparency in the system and bad customer service. Now, they used all 140K visas this year. Assigning remaining 20K visa numbers to already pending 485s which are not yet documentarily (name check delayed cases) qualified is not the violation of law. It was old practice. In fact, ombudsman recommends it. They have the trump card which is Ombudsman report and recommendations. Therefore they are immune to lawsuit. Therefore, filing the law-suit is not going to help. The only two mistakes I see is 1) making all categories as �current� in June 13 and second is modifying VB only on July 2.

    My recommendation is to IV is capitalize the situation in constructive way. Law suit only bring media attention with the expense of money and time. The constructive approach is getting an immediate interim relief by legislation to recapture unused visas in previous years to balance the supply vs demand difference.





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  • ajay
    12-08 04:57 PM
    I also got a response with some number. I don't know how much of it is going to help us in knowing the situation.





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  • sodh
    07-23 03:56 PM
    I had same conversation with my lawyer, got reply as since I-140 is approved recently so don't have to include. Already I-485 applied without employer letter. Please suggest what other options do I have.
    Ask him to send an ammedment to the previous application of I-485 which was submitted, and include the Employment offer letter if you can.



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  • WillIWin?
    07-24 12:24 PM
    This is my law firm. Seems like they have submitted many applications (140 + 485 concurrently) WITHOUT the employment offer letter.
    Anyone else with this firm ? Also I see that there are people who have already sent in their 485 applications. My 2 cents:

    - Dont send in multiple 485s (with the same underlying I-140. Multiple 485s with multiple I-140s is fine). Higher chances of rejection than just a missing employment letter.

    - If your lawyer is a relatively reputable firm, then chances are that they have done this in the past and have not had any issues. So chances are they know what they are doing.





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  • kumar1
    12-11 11:15 AM
    Kavita - I absolutely disagree with you. All of us (people on L-1, F-1, J-1, H1, B1, K1 and their derivatives....) went to US consulate to request for VISA. US consulate never came to your door with a VISA. Yes, it is your privilege to file GC but it is not your right. You can shower yourself with tags like "highly skilled" and what not but truth is, if we are so highly skilled then why are we having so many issues with Green Card? Why no one in this country is listening to us? They listened to bank's issues and came up with 750 Billion dollars in 2 flipping weeks. They have almost granted 15 Billion to auto industry. Meanwhile, we, self proclaimed highly skilled are fighting to have driver's license in DMV offices. And above all, when someone on H1 and L1 gets laid off, what is the problem in packing up the bag and going back to home country? It is us...you and me, who love to live in this country, we fight tooth and nail to live here, somehow, anyhow, at any cost!

    The way I look at it, we are here because this country provides us a very good quality of life and we see bright future for our family. After 5-10 years, we get so used to America that it hurts to even think that we are still on a temporary VISA.

    Please attack my thought, do not attack me or my self esteem!

    I absolutely agree with you. I can't imagine how a person of Indian or Chinese origin can blame themselves of this retrogression. To me, it is a reflection of poor self esteem.
    The bottomline is that we are here because we are needed here. We have the privilege to apply for green card in return for the work we do. Country quota does not make sense in employment based immigration. It is an unfair practice which has to stop someday.



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  • Googler
    02-22 11:43 PM
    All this discussion about revealing sources and gaining fame is really funny from my pov.

    AILA liaison reports routinely name this official, news reports also routinely name this official. He has also testified before Congress and those transcripts are freely available to those who look. If you have not heard his name before and do not know he is the one who sets cutoff dates, it is only because you haven't been paying attention in class...:)

    Also in this case it was Ron Gotcher reporting on the AILA So Cal Liaison meeting who revealed his name in the first place.

    I should also add that I have no special connection with this or any other official (sigh -- wouldn't I have my greencard already if I did). I've done my share of research since I got stuck in retrogression in Oct 2005, and have exercised my rights as a stakeholder in the immigration process to pick up the phone and ask questions where ever I can. Knowing the sections of the INA, the contents of the Ombudsmans Reports, CRS reports etc. tends to make people very responsive.

    As for the reason for me sharing this information -- which after all I could have just sat on for myself -- was because I would want the same -- if someone found out something that potentially was going to affect my greencard I would want to know. I want to know every possible shred of information.

    Of course maybe that is what I should do the next time. Just sit tight.:D





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  • immique
    07-03 01:42 AM
    I've said it before and I'll say it again - I don't see how the per country limit is unfair! It was set up so that immigrants from ALL nations would have EQUAL opportunity to immigrate to the U.S. and to prevent any one (or two) countries from monopolizing the visa numbers. Getting rid of the per country limit would most certainly lead to immigration from a limited number of sources (countries) and thus jeopardize the diversity of the immigration process. Getting rid of it would be like robbing Peter to pay Paul because those countries who are severely retrogressed now would only see limited benefits and those who are not all that retrogressed would fall backwards - is that fair!? It seems these forms are dominated by "certain" groups who have their own agenda and don't really care about ROW! It makes me feel uncomfortable being an IV member from ROW!

    how can you argue that quota system in EB categories is fair when there is no quota system in H1 visas? do you really think it is fair that a person from retrogressed country wait for 7-10 years in the same category or even a higher EB category when a similar person in other countries see their application cleared in a few months. just imagine yourself being in the less favorable/retrogressed category. EB system is based on qualifications and not the country of Origin. I don't have any issue regarding diversity. diversity is good but I don't think penalizing qualified individuals from a few countries just based on the country of Origin bodes well for the future of immigration especially when US is trying to attract high skilled immigrants.



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  • sanju
    02-18 07:17 PM
    How to convert from Legal to Illegal?;)
    How about if I tell USCIS I am born here and never applied for Birth Certificate?

    that's why you name is champu.


    .





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  • sunty
    11-11 12:33 PM
    In addition to sending the letter, we may try this avenue as well (look at the page bottom)

    How to Contact Us (http://travel.state.gov/about/info/info_308.html)

    "For immigrant visa inquiries, call the National Visa Center at 603-334-0700 or
    email: NVCINQUIRY@state.gov"

    Any idea if these is the correct number to call ?

    Maybe inundating them with calls might help us reach Mr. Charles Oppenheim office and get some explaination about the visa allocation process.

    I tried calling, but today is a Federal Holiday. Will try again tomorrow.



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  • StuckInTheMuck
    07-28 11:46 AM
    Is this thread going anywhere in particular (that is relevant to IV)?





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  • vandanaverdia
    09-11 04:51 PM
    ACT NOW!!
    Come now to DC... GO IV!!!



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  • Sunx_2004
    10-25 11:32 AM
    Priority date: April 2004
    Please participate in EB3 Poll





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  • mnq1979
    08-21 09:46 AM
    Well consult a attorney and discuss with him. Your case looks complicated to me, i would suggest you to get a good attorney to sort this mess.



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  • alex99
    04-11 10:26 AM
    bump...





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  • jelo
    04-09 11:11 AM
    I spoke to the lawyer about IOs at POE calling the employers whether the H1bs can be replaced by citizens. His explanation made sense and this calling business looks suspicious.
    As he said, we do not prove anywhere in H1b process that we are not going to replace citizens. we do prove that the job will be paid the prevailing wage at the location. So I dont know how the IO can call and ask that unless they have other strong reason to do so. I do here such news but not from any one I know and travelled.



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  • sandiboy
    07-23 05:42 PM
    I saw a guy on who mailed appln on Jun 27th & got receipt notice for 07/18. Does it mean we are close and should expect some guys to get notices this week for Jul 2 cases ??

    faqua India 11/01/2003 Nebraska EB2 06/27/2007 06/28/2007 07/18/2007





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  • bsbawa10
    03-09 03:48 PM
    hey bsbawa atleast ur pd is apr 04, now it is feb 04 for you , there is hope that you will get it by this year end atleast, think about folks like me, i have to wait till 2019 to get my eb3 to current......... so stop crying and be happy that atleast ur in EB2........ :o

    I came in 1999 and filed GC atleast 5 times (every time sometthing went bad), spent atleast 30,000 dollars. Applied for immigration to Australia and got rejected so the anguish is natural.





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  • psaxena
    11-19 11:09 AM
    Are you the one who created the slogan, move ahead we are behind you... !! (and will always be behind without giving any support)

    Why don't you file the lawsuit, why do you look up to someone to do what you want??

    Just want get everything in the world without doing anything and that too FREE??

    Step up and do something rather than just pushing everyone around.
    There is a lot I can say about , but then the fine line of the difference between you and me will be no more. So I leave this conversation right here!! Hope this shakes up your conscious if you got one.



    Did you file the lawsuit yet?

    Someone please update on the lawsuit to enforce visa spill over





    venky321
    02-13 06:12 PM
    This is ridiculous; no one asked you to come to this country.

    Nor are you entitled to anything besides what they chose to bestow.

    Remember that.





    neverbefore
    07-29 02:23 AM
    Hi all,

    I am not sure whether I should add this over here or not but I could not resist and I don't know any other way.

    I went to a wine shop and was shocked to see cartoon of Ganesha used on the bottle of India Pale Beer. I am not a religious person but this thing made me nervous. Please let me know how this can be protested.

    Thanks

    Please desist from such irrelevant postings here. If you have a personal problem, at least display the intelligence to find the proper forum for it.

    To answer your irrelevant question, such a thing can be protested best by not consuming the beer and most of all, to not give it publicity by laying bare your intellect at the wrong fora.



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